Early-Stage Discount Rates (k): H1 2026 Update

By John D. Evans, CFA, Founder & General Manager at SEIML

On 5 January 2026, we published an indicative table of early-stage discount rates used in DCF-style startup valuations. Here is the six-month update for the period ended 30 June 2026.

The broad message is that the picture has not changed dramatically, but there has been some modest refinement. In the US, UK and EU, the indicative ranges have generally narrowed slightly, especially from Pre-Seed to Series A. That suggests somewhat firmer sentiment and a little more pricing confidence for stronger companies.

In Mainland China, Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, discount rates remain higher on average and the ranges remain wider. That reflects the continuing need to price execution risk, funding risk and market depth more conservatively, particularly at the earliest stages.

Southeast Asia still shows the widest indicative ranges in this table. That is not a criticism of the region. It reflects the reality that early-stage outcomes can vary widely across markets, sectors and funding ecosystems.

The key point remains the same: “k” is not public-market WACC. In venture and early-growth valuation, it is a practical pricing tool for very high risk - illiquidity and uncertainty. It should move down as a company de-risks across product, traction, team and funding.

A discount rate is therefore not just a market input. It is also a shorthand expression of where the company really is today.